Turkey – Flood Warning : 23 - 24 September 2016 - ECMWF HRES Model

​Two people died yesterday, 21 September, after torrential rain triggered a landslide in the Beşikdüzü district of the Black Sea province of Trabzon in Turkey. Turkish State Meteorological Service reported that over 26cm (10.24 inches) of rain fell in one day in Beşikdüzü. Wide areas of the district have been flooded as a result. Rescues were required for numerous people trapped in homes, vehicles and schools

​Flooding also affected parts of the neighbouring province of Giresun. Local media report that three bridges were destroyed by the flooding in Giresun’s Eynesil district. In a statement made late yesterday, Turkey’s Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency (AFAD) said that roads and buildings have been severely damaged in Beşikdüzü. AFAD have sent search and rescue teams to the area and said “work is underway to take control of the situation.” Turkey’s Black Sea Region is extremely vulnerable to flash flooding and landslides, with coastal towns and cities surrounded by steep mountains. Deadly floods affected Ordu Province in July this year, where two people died. Artvin Province was twice hit by deadly floods in the space of a few months between August and November last year. Research by Russian and German scientists last year revealed a connection between warming seas and major flood events in the Black Sea region of Russia. Their study showed that warmer sea surface temperatures can lead to an increase in precipitation intensity – in some cases of over 300% – for communities and regions neighbouring warm seas. Rainfall Turkish State Meteorological Service (TSMS) reports that 269.4 mm of rain fell in Beşikdüzü in 24 hours from 06:00 on 21 to 06:00 on 22 September. Carşıbaşı recorded 108.8 mm of rain during the same period. The heavy rain appears to have been extremely localized in the province. Only 3 other locations recorded significant rainfall (more than 30 mm) during that period. Most areas saw rainfall figures in the mid to high teens. In Giresun province, Çanakçı recorded 76.3 mm, Güce 73.5 mm and Eynesil 48.6 mm during the 24 hours from 06:00 on 21 to 06:00 on 22 September, according to TSMS figures

Flood List

​ECMWF EPS EFI Forecast .. 23-24 Sep 2016
​Run: 12z 22 Sep 2016

Total Precipitation Extreme Forecast Index
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